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Analytics in Football – A Double Edged Sword
Sports as we know them today have come a long way. There was a time when watching sports on television was considered a huge step forward in technology. Fast forward 60 years, watching sports on television has become a staple. Today we watch sports on the go on mobile phones or devices with screens and internet connections. Proud of what we’ve accomplished, right? I hope I can change your mind about it by the end of this article.
What is sport? A sport is a group of people who come together to play a game with predetermined rules and a referee to make sure those rules are followed during the course of the game. I am a sports lover and I do sports all the time. My love for tennis and soccer in particular is indescribable. The problem of technology and advanced analysis is the most football game. Football is a beautiful game. The coach’s strategy and the way the players execute it on the field is a wonderful thing. I am a soccer player myself (just about) and have been part of various teams. I know first hand how to build strategies, the thoughts that go into a single game.
Go to -> Advanced Analytics
Most of you have seen the movie Moneyball. The film is based on the 2003 book by Michael Lewis. It tells the story of how a jock-turned-explorer used advanced statistics to gain a competitive advantage over his more financially sound rivals. This revolutionary book is a sport. The fans and the board of football clubs do not want to rely on low statistics or analysis. What Moneyball did was, took an old cliché – “sports is a business” and made us move on to the next logical question – “how do we do it smarter?”
Let’s talk about advanced analytics. Advanced analytics plays an important role in all areas of business in today’s world. Advanced analysis is our advantage. Moving from descriptive analytics to prescriptive analytics, we’ve come a long way. In a diverse, demanding business, advanced analytics is paramount.
If we look at football, it is a game that does not need much machine intelligence, but a game that needs the human element. When you bring in analytics and technology and try to reduce the human element of sports, you just crush the spirit of the game.
The reliance on analytics has killed the Premier League’s long ball game and introduced a constant tiki-taka pass. Each league had its own way of playing back then. The Premier League had the footballing and no-nonsense style that was called “The way a real football man plays”. There was a beautiful long ball, a vicious strike but all the players were just caught, left and it was up to the referee on the field to punish the culprit or not. There were arguments and fights, the passion of the fans was crazy, where the football screamed because of the passion, when the players faced each other without fear of punishment. Eric Cantona’s, Ivan Genaro Gattuso’s, Jaap Stam’s in the world of football were soon lost and the dives and bites began. Then there was the tiki-taka style of football that was played in the Spanish La Liga, the silky style of play that surprised everyone. The famous Pep Guardiola and his army in Barcelona are the masters of tiki-taka. There was Real Madrid who always lined up stars for too much of their game relying on lightning fast counters that often left the opposition stunned. There was Manchester United which had its own brand of football which was managed by the famous Sir Alex Ferguson. United’s team is a team full of strength and character. Each of these leagues had its own beauty and each team had its own style of play.
When you take technology and analysis to the extreme, there are unfortunate technologies like VAR (Video Assistant Referees).
The VAR process consists of 3 steps:
The referee informs the VAR, or the VAR advises the referee that a decision/incident should be reviewed.
Review and advice from VAR
The video is analyzed by the VAR, who advises the referee through the headset what the video shows.
A decision or action is taken
The referee decides to review the video on the side of the field of play before taking the appropriate action/decision, or the referee accepts the information from the VAR and takes the action / decision accordingly.
Now the referee can talk to VAR for any doubts he wants to clarify. What does he do?
• Removes the human element from the game.
• Takes too much time and brings too many breaks into the game, a game that used to be free-flowing and continuous.
This makes it similar to the Formula 1 race. The analysis that brought the fuel weight management system and many stoppages removed the continuity of the race and the audience decreased due to the increase in technology. A similar trend could occur in football if this practice were to be implemented.
Advantages of Advanced Analytics in Soccer:
Soccer analytics isn’t that bad. Let’s take the case of Simon Wilson joining Manchester City in 2006. Simon Wilson was initially a consultant for an analytics startup called Prozone. He joined City to start an analytics department and hired the best data analysts under him. We want to change the way football teams use data. He found that after the defeat, there was no examination of why he lost and what to do next. City were a mid-table club at the time. In September 2008, when the club was acquired by the Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment, a private outfit owned by members of the Abu Dhabi royal family, it found itself with with the resources needed to challenge the team. the Premier League. Today, Wilson is Manchester City’s manager of strategic performance analysis. He has five departments under his leadership, including the performance analysis team, which is led by a sports scientist named Ed Sulley.
After each match, team performance data will be reviewed. There are many lists. Line breaks (rugby term), ball possession, success rate, ball win/loss ratio have been analyzed in the past. “Instead of looking at a list of 50 variables, we want to find five, say, that are very important to the way we play,” said Pedro Marques, Manchester City’s game analyst.
“With the right data-feeds, the algorithm will produce statistics that have a strong correlation to wins and losses.” Wilson remembers a season in which Manchester City failed to score in more than 22 games, so his team decided to analyze more than 400 goals that were scored from corners. It has been observed that about 75 percent is caused by the corner, which is a kind of curve of the ball towards the goal. The next 12 games of the following season saw City score nine goals from corners.
Teams are investing heavily in analytics today and it’s working for them. Look at where Manchester City are at the moment, sitting at the top of the Premier League table and never threatened. Look at Manchester United this season, their possession percentage is low but their conversion rate is high. The Manchester Derby on 7 April 2018 saw United only have 35% possession but they managed to beat City 3-2. Each team has its own evaluator who gives feedback based on the team’s strengths.
Advanced analysis is like the Two Face coin in Batman, “Your head dies, your tail survives!”
It can reap crazy rewards from a team’s point of view, but at the same time it can disrupt the fun game by unnecessary pauses, replays and by removing elements. humanity. Multiple replays and different angles, showing the fans if the referee made a mistake or not. Allow mistakes to happen, because it is only human to err. Refereeing in soccer is not an exact science and comes down to real time. Let there be debate about the decision, let there be passion in the debate. Do you want to watch a football match like El Classico or the Manchester Derby and sit with your friends and say “that was a very clean game, the best team won!” Hell NO! Don’t take the love of football away from technology and analysis. Let football be football and let technology take over!
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