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The U.S. Economy – An Alphabetic, Easy-to-Understand, Light-Hearted Look at What is Happening
themerica–a somewhat dirty picture in many parts of the world. The resolution of the Iraqi situation hopefully soon will help restore our image
atush–his very low approval rating limits his ability to implement the desired legislation. The president has his work cut out for him over the next 20 months to build a good legacy. The good news? tax cuts. The bad news? Iraq
Ccustomer Cuncertainty – has remained high this year, despite the economic “wind” of the previous Fed’s strengthening and energy prices. Confidence remains somewhat fragile, however, due to concerns about terrorism…especially in the US…and soft home prices in most coastal markets.
Dollar (the) – has decreased gradually in recent months, especially compared to the euro. In my view, the additional modest weakness is welcome as it will help reduce the world’s trade imbalances.
fnergy–the US imports 60% of the oil we use every day. Anxiety? About 90% of the world’s oil is in the hands of people who don’t like us
Federal Reserve–has been on the financial sidelines for nearly 11 months now, after seventeen 0.25% firming moves between June ’04 and June ’06. Our best guess is that the Fed could ease policy slightly in the final quarter of 2007.
hGlobal economy – strong growth remains the norm, despite high energy prices. Another year of inflation above the current 4.0% would be the strongest five-year period since the early 1970s.
HHealth care – one of the biggest challenges in the coming years as America faces rising costs and a rapidly aging population. Tort reform is mandatory. Various public health trials may show promise
meinflation – rising concerns over the past 18 months, linked to energy and commodity prices. In my view, there is less concern down the road due to fierce competition, aggressive consumer behavior in getting a “better deal”, strong manufacturing advantages, and character. ‘the Internet saves.
Jobs – the US has added nearly 7.4 million new jobs over the past 40 months, although the pace slowed in ’07. Returning to the presence of very strict staff in the coming years is a given
Ktoday – and the ability to think – the key to success in an increasingly difficult economy. Continuing education and training is a lifelong reality for many to be successful
Leadership–check this one out. Democratic leadership in Congress seems more interested in attacking and discrediting the President than doing anything. If this continues, his reign may be short. Remember Pelosi’s promised minimum wage hike? Not done yet
Merger & Acquisition Activity–many deals are done to take private companies…and thus free from the burden of expensive Sarbanes-Oxley legislation. Congressional reform is essential. The alternative is that the US will continue to lose its position as the world’s financial center to London, Singapore, etc.
NThe national debt – the gross national debt of about $9.0 trillion is 67% of the size of the US annual economic product (GDP). The Japanese national debt is 150% of their size. Ouch!
Oil Price–around $62 per barrel recently. The consumer in me wants to see gasoline prices under $3.00 per gallon. The economist in me wants to see oil prices around $100 per barrel for 3-4 years. Such a price would provide a powerful incentive to get serious about conservation, renewable energy, better use of coal, nuclear, shale oil, etc.
tpolitical – the childish and idiotic behavior on both sides of the aisle in Washington is ridiculous…and all too common. How hard is it to work together?
QLatest economic growth – expected to strengthen as ’07 matures. The annual growth rate of 1.3% in the first quarter may be updated on May 31. We see 3.0% real growth at the end of ’07 and ’08
REtirement–the word will take on new meaning in the next decade as more and more people “spare the gap” (work two or three days a week) between working full-time and moving on to drinking. -whole milk. Most Baby Boomers in retirement age prefer to keep one foot in the workplace for the long term
Stocks – the “as aggressive as most” forecast for stock prices still outperforms the Dow. We explain why the gains will continue in our new econAmerica book to be published by Wiley next month
Tax–Democrats will be talking for the next two years about whether to repeal the Bush tax cuts. However, this is unlikely to happen. Why? The flow of income taxes to Washington is absolutely amazing…and “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The budget deficit for FY2007 could be $150 billion
Uunemployment – 4.6% last year and 4.5% so far in ’07. The rate will likely rise closer to 4.7%-4.8% for the balance of the year… and yes… it still remains below the average of the ’70s, ’80s, and ’90s.
Visitors (Foreigners)–may be arriving in large numbers in the coming months, especially from Europe and Asia….and spending a lot of money! Be nice, be kind, and invite them back
Wall Street–simply put…I remain bullish on the stock
Xports–US exports of goods and services in the first quarter of ’07 rose 9.8% from the same period a year ago, the 17th consecutive quarter of export growth. Imports (including oil) are still too high.
Youth–my parents “grew up” with Pearl Harbor…my friends with the Kennedy assassination and Vietnam. For millions of Generation X and Y, September 11 will be forever etched in their minds.
YesZZ (Utah) – entered the “Final Four” of the NBA after sending Houston and Golden State. Can they get it this year? Like a little train…I think we can…I think we can…I think we can
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